نمذجة القرار الأكاديمي في ظل عدم اليقين لدى قيادات الجامعات اليمنية

Abstract

This study aims to model academic decision-making under uncertainty among Yemeni university leaders by measuring uncertainty factors affecting decisions, examining their relationship with decision effectiveness, and assessing their predictive power via multiple linear regression. The population comprised 227 leaders from several Yemeni universities; a stratified random sample of 114 was selected considering geographical diversity. A questionnaire was designed to measure variables, with validity and reliability verified through expert review and internal consistency using correlation coefficients. Results showed a strong explanatory pattern (R² = 0.881), indicating uncertainty factors collectively explain 88.1% of variance in decision effectiveness. Uncertainty had a statistically significant inverse effect: increased political instability, policy changes, financial challenges, and human resource shortages were associated with lower decision effectiveness. Social factors showed no significant independent effect. Researchers recommended enhancing adaptive planning, establishing risk analysis units, developing alternative scenarios, diversifying flexible funding sources, and implementing sustainable training programs to bridge human resource gaps through clear recruitment and incentive plans, while improving institutional resilience and reducing internal information gaps.